International Journal of Agriculture and Agricultural Sciences (IJAAS) ISSN: 1712-3496, Vol. 6(2), pp. 176-184, September, 2021. © Advanced Scholars Journals

Full length Research paper 

Climate change impacts on land use in Gadaref and North Kordofan States and future Desert sheep distribution in Sudan

Abdelmalik M Abdelmalik^1,5, Abuelgasim I Musa^2,3, Ismail F-E Mohamed³, Yasunori Kurosaki⁴, Mitsuru Tsubo⁴, Abdelrahman A Khatir⁵, Imad Eldin A Ali Babiker⁵, Rehab A Hassan⁶, Nagmeldin G Elhassan⁶, Sumaya A Zakieldeen⁷, Fathielrahaman I Aljloon⁸, Flavio Forabosco⁹, Abdelatif Ijaimi¹⁰, Abdelrahman K Osman⁵ and Faisal M El Hag^4,5*

¹Depatment of Plant Production, College of Food and Agriculture Sciences, King Saud University, Riyad, Saudi Arabia Kingdom.

²United Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Tottori University, Tottori, Japan.

³Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA), Khartoum, Sudan

⁴Arid Land Research Center (ALRC), Tottori University, Tottori, Japan

⁵Agricultural Research Corporation (ARC), Khartoum, Sudan

⁶Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (HCENR), Khartoum, Sudan.

⁷Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan

⁸Department of Ecology, College of Biology and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, China

⁹AC-Sweden (International Consultant)

¹⁰Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Khartoum, Sudan

*Corresponding author’s E-mail:[email protected]

Accepted 1^stSeptember, 2021.

Abstract

Trends of TMIN, TMAX and rainfall anomalies in Gadaref and North Kordofan States, Sudan, were analyzed for 1981-2017. Vegetation biomass was measured and regressed with NDVI. Crop residues and feed concentrates quantities were also obtained and livestock carrying capacities and stocking rates calculated. Further, an optimistic (RCP 2.6) and a rather pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climate scenarios were presented to analyze future distribution of Desert sheep in Sudan. Rainfall anomalies reflected frequent droughts, with high inter-annual variability. There were positive trends for both TMIN and TMAX in Gadaref State, indicating a 0.5^oC decadal increase. In North Kordofan, only TMIN showed a positive trend. In Gadaref, rangeland area was reduced from 48% of the total State area in 1990 to 23% in 2017, while the respective decrease in North Kordofan was from 51.5% to 49.9%. Both States were in negative feed balance, being worser in North Kordofan with about 2.4 folds overstocking. Climate change pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) for Desert sheep distribution indicated a reduction in suitable areas, that would be confined to the southern and coastal zones. Gadaref and North Kordofan States are most vulnerable to climate change. Correct management of livestock could play important roles in both mitigation and adaptation.

Key words: biomass production, climate change scenarios, drylands, Desert sheep distribution, land use, rainfall anomalies, temperature trends